Ashraf Patel
A CRISIS opens up many opportunities as the famous saying goes.
The rapid shock of trade and tariff wars launched by Trump 2.0 against Mexico and Canada and then China and Colombia followed by the attacks on South Africa have sparked intense global debate.The central theme is the preservation of white nationalism and identity in the context of mass immigration and culture.
Nations would have to face these volleys- both political and economic in real time.The Elon Musk show is in top gear especially as it is dismantling core elements of the US bureaucracy associated with social democracy, diversity and soft power. Here ‘development aid’ is not seen as US soft power but as a waste of budgets that should be used for domestic purposes.
When decoding Trump 2.0 it is important to note that the BRICS bloc is not a hegemonic group but a bloc formed to reform global governance, finance and trade to be more inclusive and representative of global realities.
As the geo-economic rise of the East, anchored in China, has grown astronomically in the past decade, BRICS offers new models of economic development backed by real institutions and programs albeit within the parameters of global capitalism.
Trade in local currencies is a small step in trying to reduce volatility and new momentum around a ‘BRICS currency’ may be a logical outcome only in the long term.
Secondly, the Trump 2.0 administration's international relations view is worlds apart from the Biden administration and notions of bipartisanship may be at the bottom of the pile for the next few years. The BRICS bloc has naturally been in the crosshairs for Trump. The impact on each BRICS nation and their priorities are different, with varying levels of impact and influence.
The growth of BRICS in 2024- 25 with new members such as significant Asian economies Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia as well as Cuba and Bolivia has raised the ire of the US.
Transactionalism is the signature of Trump. Dealmaking is the mode of Trump 2.0. From the Mexican and Canadian tariffs and then delaying them in exchange for border patrols etc, to having discussions on accessing critical minerals in Ukraine as a bargaining chip, dealmaking is happening in real-time.
Trump 2.0 will more likely have a transactional approach to BRICS nations rather than deal with them as a bloc. In the past decade, political, social and cultural elites of the US have identified China as the strategic competitor and rival to US hegemony.
The Chinese model is vastly different from the US and West. Led by a centralised Chinese Communist Party and State Commission, it has managed to achieve remarkable economic and technological development in just a few decades. They have mastered the developmental state as well as globalisation.
Through major global infrastructure and development programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), BRICS and FOCAC, the model of development solidarity without interference in nations affairs has won the hearts and minds of the Global South.
Trump's approach is expected to be more bombastic and rooted in trade wars and tariffs. Beijing already has a well-developed Trump strategy and diversification plans for both trade and technology. As the Trump administration disengages with the world through massive cuts in development aid, China's soft power and development support is more than willing and able to fill the gap.
Nations such as Iran, Cuba and Bolivia have been designated as opponents of the US and EU for decades and this will intensify under Trump 2.0. Democratic South Africa has taken a more balanced approach regarding global affairs. South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ, and its membership in BRICS has been an issue for the US, which has applied significant pressure to change course.
South Africa’s AGOA future is at risk should it be removed from the programme when up for review in July 2025. The US provided direct funding to South Africa under PEPFAR, which has now been suspended, creating a funding crisis for hundreds of health NGOs. This may be a silver lining for Africa whose economies have become too dependent on Aid thus eroding state capacity and innovation.
A third category of nations that will have both complicated and competitive and anxious relations with Trump can be classified as Frenemies.
Under the Democrats administration, Russia was clumped with China as a first-tier rival. However, under Trump, this has now changed. The Trump-Putin direct, lengthy telediplomacy call on 12 February is a clear indicator of the chemistry and ‘common consensus’, especially regarding the Ukraine-Russia war and any settlement or peace process.
This brotherhood is most strong on the current cultural and information wars. Trump and Putin have much common ground on confronting the ‘Globalists’- the EU bloc, Canada, Australia etc, and it's still just less than one month into his Presidency.
Brazil, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have historically been allies of the US. With their inclusion in the BRICS bloc, they are taking much more nuanced positions on major issues from global governance, Palestine, climate change, and the need for UN and governance reforms.
India’s strategic autonomy approach, one where it seeks solid relations with both the US, EU and BRICS nations will guide its relations. Prime Minister Modi's state visit to both France and the US in the same week signals its strategy of diversified relations with powerful nations and blocs, but this approach can lead to inertia as political administrations change.
Individually, BRICS Plus nations would continue to evolve their national interest policies and tactics with Trump 2.0. However, the erratic, volatile politics and sudden decisions are way too disruptive and concerning for all BRICS nations and the Global South since all BRICS nations are committed to a generally stable international order.
BRICS nations are important in their regions and would continue to advance their core agenda to grow, promote and preserve the UN. Its overall collective global agenda will prevail in the current severe headwinds of Trump. The sheer weight of history and humanity and the geo-economic and political shifts are now irreversible.
* Ashraf Patel is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue IGD, UNISA.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.