A Possible Coup in Congo: Tshisekedi’s Fragile Hold on Power

Sesona Mdlokovana

The ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has uncovered the brittleness of President Felix Tshisekedi’s leadership and the increasing anxiety of a country trying to keep balance on the verge of a collapse. As the M23 rebels advance all over Eastern Congo, the capital Kinshasa has become a place of uncertainty and fear. Embassies are currently heightening security, families are desperate to flee, and the possibilities of a coup are increasing, yet, Tshisekedi’s response has been characterised by an alarming detachment from reality and misjudgements. 

The source of this crisis lies in the decades-long conflict in eastern Congo. It has origins in the aftermath of the genocide that happened in Rwanda in 1994. The genocide witnessed Hutu extremists that were responsible for mass killings fleeing into Congo, where they then formed militias that are still operating today. Rwanda, making reference to national security, has intervened on multiple cases in Congo- a narrative that Kigali invokes to justify its alleged support of the M23. However, Rwanda’s main interests lie in the DRC’s mineral wealth, a treasure that has fueled unending cycles of exploitation and violence. 

For Tshisekedi, this crisis puts both his legitimacy and leadership at a test. His administration insists that Bukavu remains under army control, despite the clear evidence of dominance by the M23, and this underscores his disconnect from the realities of people on the ground. This pattern of denial is comparable to the past Congolese leaders that sought to mask their military non-fulfilments with empty rhetoric. However, this time, the consequences may be much graver. The M23 capturing Goma, the economic heart of Eastern Congo, has sent shock throughout Kinshasa- a city that is 1,600km away but is burdened with fear. 

The elite in Kinshasa are drafting their exit plans, which is a clear sign of the diminishing faith in Tshisekedi’s ability to create and maintain stability. Even within his ruling coalition, Sacred Union, there is undeniable panic. The wearing away of confidence is made worse by Tshikeledi’s refusal to engage in diplomatic conversations. He was absent from two African  organised meetings and this speaks volumes. Instead of attendance, he travelled to the Munich Security Conference to shift blame onto Joseph Kabila, his predecessor for allegedly sponsoring the M23. His arguments may have some basis, but his failure to build regional alliances or secure support on an international level shows a diplomatic naivety that Congo really cannot afford.

Furthermore, Tshisekedi relies on the international community to impose sanctions on Rwanda and this shows a fundamental miscalculation. The United Nations and Western powers have for a long time condemned Rwanda’s actions, but meaningful punitive measurements are still elusive. In a region where mineral interests and geopolitics, international actors always opted for pragmatic compromises rather than firm action. The expectations that Tshisekedi has of decisive Western intervention are therefore misplaced. 

Domestically, Tshisekedi is facing mounting criticism. His main opponent, Martin Fayulu who contested in the 2018 elections, has been relentless in trying to prove him as intellectually unfit to govern. Meanwhile, Oliver Kamitatu, who is a former Kabila-era minister, openly predicts the downfall of Tshisekedi. Such rhetoric does not only reflect political conflict, but it also speaks to a broader discontent amongst the citizens of Congo who feel abandoned by their leadership. The promise of a new era under Tshisekedi’s governance has given way to disillusionment as economic hardship and insecurity worsen. 

Yet it would be superficial to pin the woes of Congo on Tshisekedi alone. The DRC’s challenges are structural as well. The country’s weak institutions, vast size and ethnic diversity  make governance a Herculean task. Mismanagement and corruption have long been a part of the state, leaving it minimally equipped to deal with crises like the M23 insurgency. Moreover, regional dynamics- with Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi all playing different roles in Congo’s conflicts- further complicate efforts aimed at stabilisation. 

So, what can Tshisekedi do? First, he has to abandon his posture of denial and accept the gravity of the situation. Transparency with the citizens is essential to rebuild trust in the nation. Second, Tshisekedi  needs to prioritise regional diplomacy over grandstanding on international spaces. Working closely with neighbour states (no matter how strained these relationships may be) and the African Union, offers a great chance for a negotiated settlement. Third, the president has to strengthen his military capabilities and morale. While the reforming of the Congolese army is a long-term project, immediate measures like better logistics, and coordination may boost its effectiveness against the M23. Lastly, the civil society of Congo must be empowered. Local leaders and grassroots organisations in Congo have long played important roles in peacebuilding efforts. Tshisekedi would do very well to harness their initiatives and insights rather than sidelining them. 

Congo is at a crossroads. Tshisekedi’s leadership will be scrutinised not only by how he handles the M23 crisis, but also by whether or not he can chart a path forward aimed at lasting peace and stability. The stakes are high for a country that has suffered for far too long. Congolese citizens deserve intelligent and decisive leadership–before it is too late. 

By Sesona Mdlokovana, 

Associate at the BRICS+ Consulting Group 

UAE & African Specialist