Diplomatic tensions: Rasool's expulsion and its impact on SA-US relations

The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) said South Africa's expelled  Ambassador to the United States Ebrahim Rasool had called for the country to not have an aggressive and antagonistic attitude towards the US.

Rasool was declared "persona non grata" after he delivered an address at Mistra's webinar on Friday titled 'Implications of changes in US administration for SA and Africa' and has until March 21 to leave the US, with his replacement expected to be announced soon.

“The supremacist assault on incumbency, we see it in the domestic politics of the US, the Maga movement, the Make America Great Again movement, as a response not simply to a supremacist instinct, but to very clear data that shows great demographic shifts in the US in which the voting electorate in the US is projected to become 48% white,” he said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took to social media to condemn Rasool, saying he had criticised the Trump administration's foreign policy and suggested that the "Make America Great Again" movement was a white supremacist response to growing demographic diversity in the US.

Rasool's expulsion adds to the already strained relationship between South Africa and the Trump administration after Trump said South Africa’s farmers were welcome to settle in the US after repeating his accusations that the government was “confiscating land from white people".

In February, Trump froze US aid to South Africa, citing South Africa's land expropriation policy that he alleged allowed land to be seized from white Afrikaner farmers.

Mistra's spokesperson Na’eem Jennah said the tone used by Rasool in the two-hour engagement is completely different from what is currently being suggested and that he had spoken on the importance of South Africa managing relations with the US.  

“The tone of Ambassador Rasool’s speech and response to the question is very different from what it has been made out to be. He called for South Africa to not have an aggressive and antagonistic attitude towards the US,” said Jennah.

The Institute in a statement said it is committed to freedom of expression and of intellectual discourse, and it hoped that 'these issues will be resolved in the interest of the peoples of both countries'.

The South African government has expressed regret over Rasool's expulsion, with the Department of International Relations and Cooperation saying that it respects the US decision and will maintain its diplomatic relations with the country.

President Cyril Ramaphosa said he had noted the "regrettable expulsion of South Africa's ambassador" and urged everyone to maintain the “established diplomatic decorum” on the matter.

Analysts said that Rasool's comments may have been unwise, given the sensitive nature of US-South African relations.

"There was a failure of diplomacy on both sides," said political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast, a political analyst.

 "Rasool's assertions were unwarranted, and he added fuel to the fire. I don't think he was thrown under the bus, but rather, he was careless in his comments."

“There was a failure of the application for diplomacy on both sides. This situation could have been avoided, yes our relationship with the US has broken down. That is an open secret…it's also an open US foreign policy underpinned by double standards."

Breakfast said diplomacy is the application of one's political agenda in a skillful way that showcases decorum.

"“The fact of the matter is that we are being punished for instituting a grievance against Israel.

 “Trump has no diplomacy, and he can get away with murder because he is managing an empire. America, in my opinion, is the world's only superpower.

“Who is going to discipline the US? The US is massive contributor to current institutions like the United Nations and so on…It's a powerful country."

He said South Africa must  must return to the drawing board and rethink its strategy on how it articulates its foreign policy posture.

"We need to be more careful and strategic in our approach and avoid making comments that are likely to be seen as provocative or hostile."

Another analyst, Sandile Swana, said Rasool's comments were likely to exacerbate tensions between the two countries. 

"The relationship between South Africa and the US has been damaged by South Africa's decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice, and also by taking Netanyahu to court, for war crimes," Swana said.

"Rasool's comments were seen as a continuation of this trend, and were always likely to be met with hostility by the US administration."

Swana said Rasool comes from the ANC and left aligned politics in South Africa 'represents the thoughts of more than two thirds of South Africans'.