SA-US relations won't be 'cured' by White House changes, warns analyst

“With a more transactional administration in the White House, South Africa’s leaning into its desire to be held as a moral superpower is not carrying much purpose – at least not in Washington. The South African government should not assume that a possible future change in US administration will ‘cure’ SA-US relations.”

Chris Hattingh from the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA), a business management consulting firm, shared this sentiment.

Relations between South Africa and the United States of America (US) are under a lot of pressure amid growing tensions over the country’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) case, the halting of PEPFAR (President Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) funding, misinformation on farm murders and land expropriation, but also the expulsion of former ambassador Ebrahim Rasool.

The latest in growing tensions saw Rasool - who previously served as SA ambassador to the US during the Barack Obama administration between 2010 and 2015 - expelled from the US for remarks made during a webinar held by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra). The theme was 'Implications of changes in US administrations for SA and Africa'.

Upon his return to the country, Rasool explained that his remarks were to South African intelligentsia, intellectuals, political leaders, and others to alert them to a change of tradition in the United States, and seeing that the old way of doing business with the US was not going to work.

“It is not the US of Obama, it is not the US of Clinton, it is a different US and therefore our language must change. Not only to transactionality but also a language that can penetrate a group that has clearly identified a fringe white community in South Africa as their constituency surrounded by a white diaspora in the White House.

“That is what we are up against… and so there is nothing I will say there that I would not say elsewhere, so I would stand by my analysis because we were analysing a political phenomenon, not a personality, not a nation, and not even a government, so I stand by that,” Rasool said.

Despite the friction caused by his removal and the difference in stances on certain issues, Rasool remained resolute in the idea that South Africa should continue efforts to rescue the relationship with the US.

“We must reset the relationship with America because our relationship with America (has been) over 50 years has not always been with the White House. It has sometimes been with Congress and it has always been with the people of the United States of America.

“We have this relationship that we must reset, and we must rebuild,” Rasool said.

Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Stellenbosch University, Amanda Gouws, explained that while Rasool referred to a supremacist project, this was interpreted to be white supremacist.

“He was called a race-baiting politician who hates Trump and the USA. Why would you kick out an ambassador without a reason?

“(We have a target) because of Trump’s international agenda and his displeasure with us taking Israel to the ICJ, and the misinformation that was given to him by the AfriForum delegation, causing him to cut funding to SA.”

CRA’s Hattingh provided some insight and shared that among business contacts, especially, there is a desire to be positive towards South Africa, “perhaps driven by a realisation that despite the myriad governance and policy impediments, the country has serious growth potential”.

Though Hattingh added that these business contacts cannot bet on potential, and that they need to see a real change.

“South Africa’s weak economic situation, driven by the government’s policy choices, has left it especially exposed at this moment of increased geopolitical volatility,” he said.

He added that US President Donald Trump identified a desire among many Americans that their country be “put first” in dealings with other countries.

“To gain some momentum heading into the mid-term elections in 2026, Democrats need to shift their messaging on various issues, including foreign policy. Should Democrats take cognisance of this fact and try to adapt their own domestic political messaging (it is clear that this has not happened as yet), the consequence will be that the party will also become more transactional in foreign policy and geopolitical dealings.

“This then is the assumption from which South Africa should work: that transactionality is a feature not just of the Trump administration, but will be of future US administrations, too, whether they are Democrat or Republican.

“South Africa should, therefore, not bet all its chips on a change in administration solving the disagreements between the two countries,” he said.

“As to where next for South Africa in its diplomatic relationship with the US, it must now go back to the very basics of diplomatic work. Regardless of who is picked to succeed Ebrahim Rasool, and whenever that may be, the embassy in Washington must function optimally.

“Engagements with the US diplomatic corps and government should be pursued at every opportunity. It is not terribly exciting work, but respect is earned. South Africa should not take that work for granted,” Hattingh said.

“On the broader engagement side, when President Cyril Ramaphosa sends a delegation to Washington, if their aim is to discuss foreign aid and South Africa’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) participation, they will be swiftly rebuffed.

“A bilateral trade agreement, strategic trade, and investment opportunities for the US, and South Africa’s strength as part of the Southern African Development Community (and that entity’s economic growth opportunities), or some combination of all of the above, should be presented to the US administration.”

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private institution focusing on international public policy issues, said that the fight between the Trump administration and Pretoria was predictable, though that does not make it any less costly for either side.

“The new Trump administration likely sees the rupture of diplomatic and economic relations with Pretoria as a tough and useful warning for dozens of other countries, in particular, members of BRICS, which it fears could be lining up to oppose it on a range of political and economic issues: don’t challenge Washington’s interests or else be prepared to face the consequences.”

In terms of what comes next, Gouws said: “As our government has indicated they will continue to liaise with the US administration and a delegation to discuss matters with the US administration just landed in New York (this week).”

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Vincent Magwenya, who spoke to the Cape Times, said: “There's nothing more to say on this matter. When there's something to announce, we will do so.”

University of Johannesburg’s Professor Isaac Khambule, who is a professor of political economy, also added that the country is taking action.

“South Africa is just trying to adhere to protocol and follow the formal structures that need to be followed to address this particular issue, whereas, what we see from the US is that they don’t mind going out there to utilise any spat that they can find.

“The perception that has been created is that nothing is being done, but a lot is being done. It’s just that people expect the South African government to also respond in public, which is not the duty of a diplomatic matter.”

theolin.tembo@inl.co.za