The Changing US-Russia Relationship Under Trump: A Catalyst for Multipolarity?

Chloe Maluleke

Europe's geopolitical landscape is shifting dramatically, with US President Donald Trump recalibrating America’s stance toward Russia. Since taking office, Trump’s administration has disbanded Biden-era programs aimed at seizing assets from Russian oligarchs, paused military aid to Ukraine, suspended US cyber operations against Russia, and pursued direct negotiations with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, signalling a thaw in US-Russia relations. While critics decry this as a betrayal of traditional alliances, it marks a drastic departure from the decadeslong hostile US approach towards Moscow and could fundamentally reshape European and global power dynamics. This shift also raises an important question, is Trump inadvertently accelerating the transition to a multipolar world order? 

For decades, US foreign policy has positioned Russia as a geopolitical adversary, reinforcing Cold War-style hostilities through military posturing and economic sanctions that helped shape European security and economic strategies. Trump’s recent foreign policy suggests a dramatic shift. Rather than escalating tensions, he is actively seeking to de-escalate conflict and refocus American priorities away from direct confrontation with Moscow. Trump’s decision to suspend military assistance to Kyiv places significant pressure on President Zelenskyy to negotiate peace. The move has sent shockwaves through Washington and the EU, where bipartisan support for Ukraine has been a cornerstone of US, EU and NATO foreign policy. Yet, Trump’s stance suggests a broader recalibration, one where a stable relationship with Russia takes precedence over sustaining a costly proxy conflict.

The geopolitical repercussions of this shift extend beyond Ukraine. The recent announcement by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth that America is halting cyber operations against Russia aligns with Trump’s broader vision of resetting US-Russia ties, prioritising diplomatic engagement over confrontation. 

Trump’s foreign policy changes come at a time when tensions between the US and its European allies are reaching a boiling point. The fallout from the Ukraine conflict has only deepened these divisions. European leaders, frustrated by Washington’s shifting priorities and overall disregard, are increasingly questioning their reliance on the US. Germany and France, long proponents of EU strategic autonomy, are now pushing harder for an independent European security framework. French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly advocated for reducing Europe’s dependence on the US especially within the NATO framework.

Eastern European nations, especially Poland and the Baltic states, face a dilemma. Historically reliant on US military backing, they now fear abandonment and could demand stronger European-led security initiatives. Poland’s push for an expanded European defence force and its increasing cooperation with non-NATO countries, like South Korea in arms procurement, highlight early signs of a strategic pivot. Trump’s policies have begun weakening US influence over Europe and are forcing Europe to seek indepenace away from the US. 

For Russia, Trump’s pivot represents an opportunity to solidify its influence in Eurasia. A weakened NATO and reduced American involvement in Eastern Europe would allow Moscow to strengthen its role in regional security structures, particularly within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). While Trump may view closer ties with Russia as a pragmatic strategy, his broader America First rhetoric suggests that any partnership would be transactional rather than strategic. Russia, under Putin, has already positioned itself as a central player in a multipolar world order, forging deep economic and security ties with China, India, and other emerging powers including the BRICS+ bloc. Any attempt by Trump to pull Russia away from these alliances would likely face resistance from Moscow as Russia has little incentive to realign itself with a US administration that could change course after the next election cycle.

While Trump’s foreign policy is often framed as a rejection of traditional alliances, it may inadvertently accelerate the decline of US global hegemony. By creating uncertainty about America’s commitment to her allies, NATO and other international institutions. Trump is indirectly pushing American allies to seek alternative security and economic partnerships. This, in turn, strengthens the very multipolar ideology that the US has long sought to counter.

The BRICS+ bloc, which has been expanding its economic influence and de-dollarising global trade, stands to benefit from this realignment. If Europe continues to hedge its bets by increasing engagement with China and Russia, the US risks losing economic leverage over some of its closest allies. Additionally, the weakening of NATO could prompt middle powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to accelerate their shift toward non-Western security and economic arrangements.

Trump’s approach to Russia is undeniably disruptive, but it also reflects a broader global transition away from a US-centric order. His foreign policy raises critical questions: Has the US, in its attempt to redefine its role in global affairs, inadvertently accelerated the formation of a more decentralised world order? And if so, can Washington adapt to this reality, or will it continue to resist multipolarity at the risk of further alienating its allies?

Europe is beginning to move toward strategic independence aiming to deepen non-Western alliances. This all suggests that multipolarity is not just an emerging trend, it is an evolving reality. 

One thing is certain, geopolitics is entering an era of profound uncertainty. Whether this shift results in a more stable international system or exacerbates global tensions remains to be seen, but the US may soon find itself grappling with the consequences of a world that no longer operates on its terms.

By Chloe Maluleke 

Associate at the BRICS+ Consulting Group: Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist