People read newspapers on the bonnet of a car Matric pupils check their results in newspapers last year. File Picture: Timothy Bernard Independent Newspapers.
As KwaZulu-Natal awaits the release of the 2024 matric results, education experts have shared their predictions, pointing to a mix of stability and potential challenges for the province’s pass rate. Last year, KZN achieved an 86.4% pass rate, ranking among the top-performing provinces.
Professor Labby Ramrathan, of the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), was optimistic about consistency in KZN’s matric performance. He said he did not see a “major shift” in the results but expected the pass rate to be around the 80% mark.
Ramrathan attributed this stability to a relatively disruption-free academic year.
“We have had a fairly stable academic year with very little disruptions. Support systems at a systems level as well as at the school level continued, and no major curriculum issues were experienced,” he said.
He also noted that while systemic support remained intact, the results would largely depend on the efforts of the pupils.
“The only variable is the learners’ efforts, which will largely determine the pass rate,” he stated.
Professor Chika Sehoole, an education expert from the University of Pretoria, foresees a slight decline in KZN’s pass rate despite a positive national outlook.
“Even though nationally I expect an improvement in the results, KZN may see a slight decline,” Sehoole said.
He pointed to the impact of natural disasters, including storms and flooding, which have disrupted teaching and learning in parts of the province.
“Availability of infrastructure, learner attendance, and school recovery programmes in parts that were affected by disasters will have an impact and influence the results,” he said.
Sehoole added that despite these challenges, the relative calm in the national academic environment this year could support overall improved performance.
Speaking on the national pass rate, Professor Michael le Cordeur, of the Faculty of Education at the University of Stellenbosch, said: “I am predicting that the matric results will stabilise at 82% – 83%.”
“It was a quiet year with no reason at all for any decrease. On the other hand, the lack of resources in many poor schools will prevent any further increases,” le Cordeur said.
“It is also time to realise that the matric results are no longer a fair indication of our educational stance. Rather, the focus should shift to the poor literacy results in the lower grades, which is a more precise indication of where we are educationally.”
Professor Kobus Maree, of the Department of Educational Psychology, University of Pretoria, said that there would be an uptick in the national pass rate but noted that a lot of work had to continue to keep the momentum going. “We have observed an upward trend in the pass rate over the years, but predicting outcomes remains extremely challenging,” he said.
“Persistent challenges, such as overcrowded classrooms, poverty, under-resourced schools, and systemic disadvantages, may hinder further improvements. I anticipate a marginal increase in the pass rate, primarily due to interventions in teaching and learning, improved curriculum delivery, and strengthened early intervention strategies.”
The matric pass rate will be announced tonight, with pupils’ results available tomorrow.
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