Load shedding won’t return immediately after elections – experts

Energy experts have allayed fears that load shedding will return after the elections, saying there has been a big improvement in the energy availability factor (EAF).

This after fears were raised by social media users that load shedding was imminent after the elections.

Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity, said the 62 days without load shedding could be attributed to an increase in energy availability and a reduction in breakdowns.

Craig Morkel, chairperson of the Gas Economy Leadership Team at SA Oil and Gas Alliance (Saoga), said the energy availability factor had improved significantly to 65% in May 2024 from 52% in May 2023.

“The assertion by Eskom and the Ministry of Electricity that load shedding is unlikely to return after the election, bar any extraordinary event, is plausible as it is supported by various analyses of the 2023 and 2024 year-to-date data.”

Morkel said the Planned Capacity Load Factor data indicated that the planned maintenance was significantly higher in 2023.

“Primarily due to the higher planned maintenance of 2023, it is resulting in lower unplanned breakdowns of the coal power stations in the 2024 year-to-date,” Morkel said.

“Planned maintenance prevents unplanned breakdowns of the coal power stations and results in less load shedding.”

Morkel said the winter seasonal peak was approaching, and Eskom and IPP Gas To Power (GTP) were using significantly less diesel in the same months of 2024 compared to 2023.

“GTP is being dispatched less due to the higher EAF and lower incidence of unplanned breakdowns. Saoga believes that the data, in particular its trend line projections, do not support the conspiracy theory that the lack of load shedding is an election ploy.”

Ruse Moleshe, managing director of RUBK, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory company, said Eskom had enough capacity and load shedding would not return in the immediate future .

“Load shedding depends on supply versus demand. At the moment Eskom has enough supply to match the demand.

“Obviously we can’t give a 100% guarantee that load shedding won’t return as there could be a major breakdown, but the forecast we have does bode well. Even if there was a major breakdown there is still the open cycle gas turbines and pump storage on standby to help with supply.”

Moleshe said Eskom had been relying significantly less on burning diesel.

“This has been due to an increase in planned maintenance which has significantly decreased unplanned breakdowns. Kusile unit 5 and Koeberg unit 2 coming back online have also added more capacity.

“We are expecting another unit to also come online at Kusile and that will add more capacity. There could be intermittent problems but at the moment there has been an improvement at Eskom and we hope for the best.”

Professor Wikus van Niekerk, Dean of Engineering at Stellenbosch University, said he had not heard or seen anything that indicated that load shedding was imminent. “In fact, as today is a public holiday we will use significantly less electricity than normal.”

Ramokgopa said Eskom’s performance had defied all the doomsday predictions and silenced many critics.

“The ministry remains confident that the work we have been leading over the past 12 months, supported by the many competent Eskom employees and its leadership team, will continue in the coming months and ultimately place the country on a firm foundation of energy security.

“There has been an across-the-fleet improvement in energy availability and reduction in breakdowns, following a conscious decision in March 2023 to invest in heightened planned maintenance,” Ramokgopa said.

The Mercury