Trump's trade war: South Africa's unwanted casualty?

By Dr Ernst van Biljon 

President Trump's announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, while framed as a move towards fair trade, throws a significant wrench into the gears of global supply chains and presents a particularly complex challenge for South Africa.

The core premise—that tariffs should mirror those imposed on US goods—sounds equitable on the surface.

However, the sheer scale of the disparities, with some countries facing near-50% tariffs, signals a potential for major trade disruption.

For global supply chains, this announcement creates a landscape of heightened uncertainty and increased costs. Companies operating across borders will face the prospect of significantly higher tariffs, forcing them to reassess sourcing strategies, production locations, and pricing models.

This could lead to a fragmentation of supply chains, as businesses seek to diversify their operations to mitigate the impact of the tariffs.

South Africa finds itself in a particularly precarious position. With a 30% tariff imposed on its goods entering the US, a figure significantly higher than that of many other trading partners, the country faces a substantial competitive disadvantage.

This could severely impact key export sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing and automotive, potentially leading to job losses and economic slowdown.

The discrepancy between the tariffs imposed on South Africa and those levied on countries like Brazil, which enjoys a 10% rate, raises questions about the rationale behind these decisions.

This could lead to trade diversion, where US importers shift their sourcing away from South Africa towards countries with lower tariffs.

The increased trade barriers could deter foreign investment and hinder efforts to boost export-led growth. The long-term implications of these tariffs are uncertain. While Trump's administration argues they will level the playing field, they could also trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, escalating into a full-blown trade war.

This would have devastating consequences for global trade and would particularly hurt developing economies like South Africa, which rely heavily on international trade for growth.

In response, South Africa needs to engage in direct diplomatic efforts to negotiate fairer trade terms with the US – particulary as regards the reciprocal 60% the US claims South Africa imposes. We also need to diversify ours export markets and strengthen regional trade relationships. Simultaneously, urgent action is needed to address the country's infrastructure bottlenecks and improve its competitiveness.

The timing of this announcement adds further pressure to the already troubled South African economy.

Dr Ernst van Biljon, Head Lecturer and Programme Coordinator M Com in Supply Chain Management, IMM Graduate School. 

BUSINESS REPORT